aq212_clear_lmsr_futarchy_prediction_market_0call)Operates log-sum-exp stable LMSR prediction markets and proper Brier forecaster scoring in Store S61 to evaluate conditional KPI welfare of proposed changes.
Log-sum-exp LMSR cost/price engine & Brier calibrator (0 calls)
Substrate: db_atomic · p99 Claim Target: ≤ 6 ms · Phase: 201 - 220 V42..V50 Epistemic Forager, FF1 FPE, BotFabric Homeostat, R-WoM/Futarchy, GoodNodes & SoftRules
Evidence-backed conditional market forecaster
5-Role Component Pod: 0-Call Slot / Solver + OpenSearch / Split-Supervisor (≤4k tok) / Diagnostic Repair + Twin Shim / CPOP + Sister Distiller.
value_attributionCommit Invariant: Requires a normalized (sum = 1.0) Beneficiary Incidence Ledger naming concrete cohorts, evidence kind, and cost_bearer_cohort; flags incidence asymmetry when cost-bearers capture <20% of value.
Architectural Problem Solved: Eliminates busywork theater by proving who captures real value vs. who bears the cognitive, financial, or operational cost.
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